Thursday 12 March 2020

Transitions and disruptions


Change can happen for different reasons and different time scales. The urgent call for climate action and a change to a ‘renewable’ economy has been met with opposition and a reluctance to ‘give up’ existing systems and industries. We can’t afford to change too quickly less people lose jobs and break the economy. We can’t move to electric cars because how could we go on long distance weekend trips?

It has been frustrating and difficult to maintain hope with so much political obstruction. As a scientist it has been particularly disheartening for public figures to distrust institutional science. Yet I understand the benefits of a well-managed gradual change process that brings everyone along with a clearly articulated vision.

I had a vigorous discussion with a (distant) relative on the need for the prophetic voice to show that point in the distance that we should be heading. We don’t want to be too quick to get there lest we leave people behind but we shouldn’t be hesitating to move either. Scouts are needed to go first and test the waters and say it is ok for everyone to come. We need strong leadership to set a long term direction, to support the scouts to keep them safe and even to extol them as our adventurers. The ‘early adopters’ that put their neck out and take risks can lose economically but if everyone waited before it was safe to leave our status quo we wouldn’t get anywhere.

And then comes along the great disruptor – the virus that has sent the market into freefall, smashed travel and global tourism, closed schools and events, and who knows how much further into our way of life it will encroach. Our response? Panic shopping, political stimulus packages, increased racial tension to anyone bearing a Chinese resemblance, and much cleaning of hands.

Without going further down this track I’ll make two observations:
1. We can change abruptly if there is will to do so. We can have a stimulus package that quickly. What an opportunity to provide jobs and create activity in the direction we want to go into.
2. Fear on a community scale can send us to very dark places. I’ve often wondered how far we are to being led by a modern equivalent of an Adolf or Pol Pot down a similar path. Our racist undertones can easily surface - ask any Chinese friend if they are viewed any differently in the past few months.

We don’t know how 2020 will play out but the active hope philosophy is needed more than ever to prevent fear being mis-used. The elderly are at great risk, jobs are at risk, our wellbeing is being put to the test. My hope is to seek out the opportunities to reshape our future and for our community to be bonded with goodwill. Some further reading from Sojourners: https://sojo.net/articles/time-act-community-now

Photo: the water lilly (subject I’m painting at the moment).



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