My
colleague gave a presentation following his attendance at COP28 on an update of
the climate. It was a summary of a report he co-authored for IPCC that detailed
the changes over the 2011-20 decade compared to previous in terms of temperatures
(air and ocean), sea level, rainfall, ice cover and extreme events. It was
headlined ‘accelerating changes’ and
some takeaways include:
Temperature:
The rise in global air and sea temperatures is accelerating - the global graph
says it all. 2023 was the hottest year since records started and 1.18°C above
the 20th century average. I remember when 1998 was regarded as an anomaly it
being so much hotter than previous records and now it looks benign. How will
2023 be regarded in another 25 years I wonder?
For sea
levels the decadal rise was 4.5mm/year – doesn’t sound like much but if you
consider the next 100 years that equates to almost half a metre and the trend
is increasing so it is likely a lot more. Many coastal areas won’t cope with
0.5m rise.
Rainfall - a
story of floods and droughts. Santiago had lower rain than normal for the
entire decade and the South African drought 2015-17 put Cape Town’s water
supply under great threat. Interestingly the heavy rain over the Sahel region
has long term consequences for Lake Victoria and flows along the Nile that
takes years to respond.
Ice cover:
Antarctica lost nearly 75% more ice in 2011-20 than 2001-10 especially over
west Antarctica. There has been dramatic ice loss over water since 2016 but
there is higher uncertainty of ice estimates over the land mass. Glaciers are
all retreating though there have been some local short term increases.
I was
scientifically impressed with the amount of rigour and effort that went into
the data. What stood out is the studies on attribution of extreme events - what
are the reasons causing the changes? In the vast majority climate change is a strong
contributing factor to the extreme events. In some cases the data is not
available to prove one way or another.
This is of
course no surprise and nor is should the general public claim ignorance. The
term global heating is also beginning to usurp climate change as well which is
something I hope takes general acceptance.
Of course
the data is one thing – and experiences of floods, droughts and bushfires
permeate communities everywhere. What is missing is how that translates to
behaviour change and policy changes. What can we do and what is stopping us
from doing it?
At a
neighbourhood Christmas party which touched on the recent heat, one neighbour
chimed in that his grandchildren will probably want to guillotine him for all
the emissions he was responsible for and possibly for his generation too. Yet
he said it in a semi-jovial way that went with the attitude but I’m of course
not going to change and went on to describe their international holiday
intentions and expected confirmation this was socially admirable.
Sonja
Geiger, an environmental psychologist has studied behavioural change and says
that information alone does not change our behaviour. As someone who knows he
could lose a few kg for a few years but still eats to not lose it I can
resonate with that. Sonja noted the one thing that most influences is the
‘social norm’ factor. We change when everyone else (ours social peers at least)
is doing it. Less people smoke now because less people smoke! It helps to
become a vegetarian if you are married to one. Of course establishing the
social norm is not easy and takes leadership on multiple levels.
Some point
the finger and expect governments to do the work but I’m channelling the spirit
of Franciscan priest Richard Rohr in saying it is all – me you, local
government, state government, all governments, UN, small business to large
corporations, schools, Unis – EVERYONE everywhere has a responsibility to
change to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And being neutral is not
good enough we must work to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations not merely
maintain them. We should all be
accountable of our carbon footprint – using the data to make our assessments.
See Carbon calculator: https://wwf.org.au/get-involved/ecological-footprint-calculator/
I think
that is something we need to think deeply on and deserves its own post.
At COP28
the report card is bleak reading. One standout positive is the status of the
ozone hole – it continues to improve. A showcase to all that if we collectively
agree to act on the science (Montreal protocol to curb CFC emissions) then
progress can be made. So there is hope!
As I write
Trump is about to win the first of the US primary election ballots in Iowa -
the state where I spent a year as an exchange student now 40 years ago. I
wonder how information there can win out over rhetoric but I digress…
So in the
Active Hope context:
Gratitude: I’m very grateful to the people who have
provided us with such deep knowledge of this world across the millennia.
Honouring the Pain: I acknowledge the ongoing suffering and the
negative legacies we are leaving the next generations with respect to a hotter
world.
Seeing with new eyes: I observe myself making life
choices that differ from previously and also how hard it is and how long it can
take. I read of inspirational people doing things differently.
Going Forth: The need to have conversations everywhere, promote a low emissions lifestyle and restore our planet’s health. Rethinking consumption choices to tread more lightly. Being carbon negative (climate positive) as a conscious choice. So much to do …
Photo: Global
temperatures. https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/
