What more do we need?

My colleague gave a presentation following his attendance at COP28 on an update of the climate. It was a summary of a report he co-authored for IPCC that detailed the changes over the 2011-20 decade compared to previous in terms of temperatures (air and ocean), sea level, rainfall, ice cover and extreme events. It was headlined  ‘accelerating changes’ and some takeaways include:

Temperature: The rise in global air and sea temperatures is accelerating - the global graph says it all. 2023 was the hottest year since records started and 1.18°C above the 20th century average. I remember when 1998 was regarded as an anomaly it being so much hotter than previous records and now it looks benign. How will 2023 be regarded in another 25 years I wonder?

For sea levels the decadal rise was 4.5mm/year – doesn’t sound like much but if you consider the next 100 years that equates to almost half a metre and the trend is increasing so it is likely a lot more. Many coastal areas won’t cope with 0.5m rise.

Rainfall - a story of floods and droughts. Santiago had lower rain than normal for the entire decade and the South African drought 2015-17 put Cape Town’s water supply under great threat. Interestingly the heavy rain over the Sahel region has long term consequences for Lake Victoria and flows along the Nile that takes years to respond.

Ice cover: Antarctica lost nearly 75% more ice in 2011-20 than 2001-10 especially over west Antarctica. There has been dramatic ice loss over water since 2016 but there is higher uncertainty of ice estimates over the land mass. Glaciers are all retreating though there have been some local short term increases.

I was scientifically impressed with the amount of rigour and effort that went into the data. What stood out is the studies on attribution of extreme events - what are the reasons causing the changes? In the vast majority climate change is a strong contributing factor to the extreme events. In some cases the data is not available to prove one way or another.

This is of course no surprise and nor is should the general public claim ignorance. The term global heating is also beginning to usurp climate change as well which is something I hope takes general acceptance.         

Of course the data is one thing – and experiences of floods, droughts and bushfires permeate communities everywhere. What is missing is how that translates to behaviour change and policy changes. What can we do and what is stopping us from doing it?

At a neighbourhood Christmas party which touched on the recent heat, one neighbour chimed in that his grandchildren will probably want to guillotine him for all the emissions he was responsible for and possibly for his generation too. Yet he said it in a semi-jovial way that went with the attitude but I’m of course not going to change and went on to describe their international holiday intentions and expected confirmation this was socially admirable.

Sonja Geiger, an environmental psychologist has studied behavioural change and says that information alone does not change our behaviour. As someone who knows he could lose a few kg for a few years but still eats to not lose it I can resonate with that. Sonja noted the one thing that most influences is the ‘social norm’ factor. We change when everyone else (ours social peers at least) is doing it. Less people smoke now because less people smoke! It helps to become a vegetarian if you are married to one. Of course establishing the social norm is not easy and takes leadership on multiple levels.

Some point the finger and expect governments to do the work but I’m channelling the spirit of Franciscan priest Richard Rohr in saying it is all – me you, local government, state government, all governments, UN, small business to large corporations, schools, Unis – EVERYONE everywhere has a responsibility to change to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And being neutral is not good enough we must work to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations not merely maintain them.  We should all be accountable of our carbon footprint – using the data to make our assessments. See Carbon calculator: https://wwf.org.au/get-involved/ecological-footprint-calculator/

I think that is something we need to think deeply on and deserves its own post.

At COP28 the report card is bleak reading. One standout positive is the status of the ozone hole – it continues to improve. A showcase to all that if we collectively agree to act on the science (Montreal protocol to curb CFC emissions) then progress can be made. So there is hope!

As I write Trump is about to win the first of the US primary election ballots in Iowa - the state where I spent a year as an exchange student now 40 years ago. I wonder how information there can win out over rhetoric but I digress…

So in the Active Hope context:

Gratitude: I’m very grateful to the people who have provided us with such deep knowledge of this world across the millennia. 

Honouring the Pain: I acknowledge the ongoing suffering and the negative legacies we are leaving the next generations with respect to a hotter world.

Seeing with new eyes: I observe myself making life choices that differ from previously and also how hard it is and how long it can take. I read of inspirational people doing things differently.

Going Forth: The need to have conversations everywhere, promote a low emissions lifestyle and restore our planet’s health. Rethinking consumption choices to tread more lightly. Being carbon negative (climate positive) as a conscious choice. So much to do …                                                                                    

Photo: Global temperatures. https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/